Original link http://yamlb.wordpress.com/2006/08/07/finding-good-priors-is-a-sloved-issue/
Date 2006-08-07
Status publish

From Eliezer S. Yudkowsky.

Q. What is the Bayesian Conspiracy? A. The Bayesian Conspiracy is a multinational, interdisciplinary, and shadowy group of scientists that controls publication, grants, tenure, and the illicit traffic in grad students. The best way to be accepted into the Bayesian Conspiracy is to join the Campus Crusade for Bayes in high school or college, and gradually work your way up to the inner circles. It is rumored that at the upper levels of the Bayesian Conspiracy exist nine silent figures known only as the Bayes Council.

Q. How can I find the priors for a problem? A. Many commonly used priors are listed in the Handbook of Chemistry and Physics.

Q. Where do priors originally come from? A. Never ask that question.

Q. Uh huh. Then where do scientists get their priors? A. Priors for scientific problems are established by annual vote of the AAAS. In recent years the vote has become fractious and controversial, with widespread acrimony, factional polarization, and several outright assassinations. This may be a front for infighting within the Bayes Council, or it may be that the disputants have too much spare time. No one is really sure.

Q. I see. And where does everyone else get their priors? A. They download their priors from Kazaa.

Q. What if the priors I want aren't available on Kazaa? A. There's a small, cluttered antique shop in a back alley of San Francisco's Chinatown. Don't ask about the bronze rat.

Q. Why did the Bayesian reasoner cross the road? A. You need more information to answer this question.

Q. Are there any limits to the power of Bayes' Theorem? A. According to legend, one who fully grasped Bayes' Theorem would gain the ability to create and physically enter an alternate universe using only off-the-shelf equipment and a short computer program. One who fully grasps Bayes' Theorem, yet remains in our universe to aid others, is known as a Bayesattva.